Thursday, April 16, 2015

An Artificially Intelligent Future

Consider where the future is going with the coming of the Singularity.  The key technology of the Singularity will be Artificial Intelligence and how far it could go in the next 100 years.  I see the following possible scenarios for the future under artificial intelligence:
  1. The first scenario is where artificial intelligence does not *yet* achieve consciousness, but is, instead, put to use by humanity as it achieves greater and greater capability.  The fear is that the most powerful AIs will only be available to the most powerful (IE. rich) humans.  These humans will experience the "power corrupts" syndrome as the AI informs the humans how to achieve greater and greater power.  This scenario eventually leads to world domination by a very few humans who control the most powerful AIs.  Everyone else is relegated to essentially (or actually) non-existence.  The problem with this scenario is that, without careful consideration, it can lead to one of the following scenarios (most likely the last one).
  2. The second scenario is where the Artificial Intelligence achieves a controlled form of consciousness and views humanity in an altruistic manner.  That is, the AI follows some form of Asimov's 3 Laws of Robotics and works to promote the betterment of human society.  This is potentially possible through technologies like nanotechnology and biotechnology.  This, though, has its inherit dangers as Isaac Asimov's Robot novels taught.  Is humanity wise enough to avoid those inherit dangers that Asimov saw 50+ years ago?
  3. The third scenario is the where the Artificial Intelligence achieves consciousness in an uncontrolled fashion and suffers from the "absolute power corrupts absolutely" syndrome.  This is the Terminator scenario where the AI decides to take over and remove the inefficient humanity, so that it could carry on in ways we could only dream of ("resistance is futile -- you will be absorbed").
Basically, this is the scenarios for super artificial intelligence that I see in the future.  The Law of Accelerating  Returns suggests that one of these scenarios will happen and probably a lot sooner than we really expect.  My question to humanity is are we wise enough to avoid the deadly scenarios that I talk about above?

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